The use of deterministic chaos theory in the step-by-step forecasting of annual electric power consumption by rural consumers

key words: electric energy, forecast, theory of deterministic chaos

Summary:

The paper describes the results of the step-by-step forecasts of annual electric power consumption set out using the models developed based on the deterministic chaos theory i.e. model based on the fractal dimension, Prigogine's logistical model and heuristic crossing model. The forecasts related to rural consumers, and were determined for the areas located within the power service region of four Electricity Distribution Companies.
The forecast quality was evaluated based on the absolute errors of expired forecasts. The values of errors of expired forecasts set based on the models developed according to the deterministic chaos theory are 2,3 to 4,7% and prove the usefulness of the models for incremental prediction of annual electric power consumption by rural consumers presented in the paper. Particularly useful for this purposes was the Prigogine's prognostic model.

Citation:

Trojanowska M. 2005, vol. 2. The use of deterministic chaos theory in the step-by-step forecasting of annual electric power consumption by rural consumers. Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich. Nr 2005, vol. 2/ 2