Predicting meteorological and agricultural drought in the system of drought monitoring in Kujawy and the Upper Notec Valley

key words: meteorological drought, agricultural drought, drought monitoring, drought predicting

Summary:

The system of drought monitoring has been performed by the Institute of Technology and Life Sciences in Bydgoszcz since 2008. Meteorological drought is evaluated using SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and agricultural drought - using CDI (Crop Drought Index). CDI is calculated with the linear regression
relationships between CDI and SPI. Prediction of meteorological and agricultural drought is made in the 10-day periods, using the forecast of precipitation obtained from WetterOnline.
The verifiability of SPI forecast was high (80-100%). The verifiability of CDI depended on crop type and soil water retention - it ranged from 50 to 100%. The differences in drought classes were determined only in several cases.
Monitoring and estimation of drought are the base of decision and activi-ties making in agricultural production, water management in the rural areas, irri-gation and estimation of yield losses.

Citation:

Łabędzki L., Bąk B. 2011. Predicting meteorological and agricultural drought in the system of drought monitoring in Kujawy and the Upper Notec Valley. Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich. Nr 2011/ 05