Comparison of verification results of the Numerical Weather Prediction models operated at ICM

key words: verification, numerical weather prediction models (NWP), weather forecast

Summary:

At ICM in quasi-operational form two non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models are operated, Unified Model developed by UK Meteorological Office and COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by US Naval Research Laboratory. Unified Model has horizontal reso-lution of 4 km and 38 levels in vertical. COAMPS model is configured with three nested grids and horizontal resolutions of 39, 13 and 4.3 km. UM and the second grid of COAMPS cover the area of Central Europe. In this paper results of both NWP models, i.e. COAMPS computed on 13 km mesh resolution and UM were verified against observations from 60 Polish synoptic stations. In the verification process surface observations were compared with the nearest gridpoint forecasts. Only results from 00 UTC model runs were used.
For the following meteorological elements: 2m air temperature, wind speed and wind direction at 10 m, mean sea level pressure ME, MAE and RMSE are presented. In case of 12 hour accumulated precipitation contingency tables for selected thresholds were constructed and their results were used to obtain FBI, ETS, POD and FAR. The verification sample covers period since June 2009 to November 2010.

 

 

Citation:

Melonek M. 2011, vol. 8. Comparison of verification results of the Numerical Weather Prediction models operated at ICM. Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich. Nr 2011, vol. 8/ 06