ASSESSMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN 2015 FOR NORTH CENTRAL PART OF POLAND USING HYDROTHERMAL COEFFICIENT (HTC) IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

key words: Temperature, Rainfall, Hydrothermal Coefficient, Climate Change, Crop Production Weather Generator, North Central Poland

Summary:

This paper attempts to evaluate a year 2015 from the point of view of present and future expected climate for the purpose of agriculture production using the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov (HTC). Air temperature and total precipitation were simulated for conditions current and expected for a chosen meteorological station in Central Poland, according to the GISS Scenario (which is typical for Poland assuming the CO2 concentration doubles, as is expected for the years 2050-2060). The year 2015 and two 500-year daily temperature and rainfall series were used for computing the hydrothermal index of Sieljaninov, with a 30-day window for vegetation periods, from April to September. The simulated hydrothermal index was presented on a graph during the vegetation period as a course of means with standard deviations, and 50% and 90% critical area.
The presented results show the year 2015 as dry or very dry within the vegetation period as well from the point of view of future climate changes according to the GISS Scenario. In case of heavy rainfall during the dry period of plant vegetation hydrothermal index show over estimation tendency

Citation:

Kuchar L., Iwański S., Diakowska E., Gąsiorek E. 2017. ASSESSMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN 2015 FOR NORTH CENTRAL PART OF POLAND USING HYDROTHERMAL COEFFICIENT (HTC) IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE. Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich. Nr 2017/ I (2)