Miron B. Kursa

Mgr Sławomir Walkowiak

Dr Witold Rudnicki

Forecasting the potential evpotranspiration In the orchard with thr numerical weather forecast

Numerical weather forecasts have reached the acuraccy and reliability level that their results can be used as a replacement for the measurements of weather parameters when the availability of the latter is limited. Here we present the application of the COAMPS numerical weather forecast model to prediction of the potential evapotranspiration ET0. ET0 is computed using the data from the model. Also a hybrid model with part of the data coming from the model and part of the data from the measurements was used. Additionally a machine learning methods were used to improve model skill. The results show that application of the simulated data gives very good agreement of the predicted ET0 with that computed using measurement data. Hybrid models are slightly better than the purely simulation-based and machine learning allows for further improvement od the ET0 models.     ...

Doc. dr hab. Waldemar Treder

Dr Krzysztof Klamkowski

Mgr Anna Tryngiel-Gać

Dr Bogumił Jakubiak

Dr Witold Rudnicki

Miron B. Kursa

Water requirement forecast-internet platform for forecasting fruit crop water needs prepared in the frames of PROZA project

In 1997 the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling (ICM), University of Warsaw launched the Internet weather service which delivers numerical weather forecasts for individual consumers and has become a basis for several weather-related scientific projects. The project "Op-erational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions" (PROZA) (started in September 2009) utilizes data obtained from weather service provided by ICM. The Research Institute of Horticulture is one of the partners in the project. The institute participates in task 3 of the project: "Application of numerical weather forecasts in forestry and fruit farming". In the frame of this task, an Internet platform for forecasting of spring frosts and fruit crop water needs was developed. https://prognozy.projekt-proza.pl/. A user (after logging in) has access to the following information (forecast is prepared for 3 days): ETo, precipitation, climatic water balance and water requirements of major fruit crops. Data on amount of (easily) available water in root zone are also available. The information provided by the service make controlling of irrigation easier and thus improve agricultural water use efficiency. The estimation of forecasting quality showed that the accuracy of forecast was high proving its practical value for fruit growers. ...