RECENT TRENDS IN ANNUAL MAXIMUM FLOWS WITHIN THE UPPER VISTULA RIVER CATCHMENT

Słowa kluczowe: annual maximum flow, Upper Vistula River, Kendall-Theil linear regression, autocorrelation, variance correction approach

Streszczenie:

All uninterrupted time series of annual maximum flows of size at least 30 recorded in the period 1951-2016 in the Upper Vistula River catchment, were taken into trend analysis. Each of the 138 time series ended not earlier than in 2012. To estimate the trend, the nonparametric Theil-Kendall linear regression method was used. After removing the trend, lag-1 Kendall rank autocorrelation coefficient was calculated and, if the coefficient was significant at 5% level, was used to correct the variance of the Kendall S statistic which otherwise remained unchanged. Finally, the variance-corrected Mann-Kendall trend test was used, detecting 22 significant (at 5% level) linear trends of which only two were the effect of autocorrelation. All 138 significant and non-significant trends showed certain areal clustering clearly visible on the map of the catchment, which suggested dividing the area into three parts according the direction of trend and/or the number of statistically significant trends. Generally, the trends in the southern of the Upper Vistula River catchment are increasing, the opposite is true for the northern part. This finding does not concern the north-west part of the catchment where both kinds of trends are observed, which may be explained by strong anthropogenic influence.

Cytowanie:

Całek M., Węglarczyk S. 2019. RECENT TRENDS IN ANNUAL MAXIMUM FLOWS WITHIN THE UPPER VISTULA RIVER CATCHMENT. Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich. Nr 2019/ II (1)